Dedicated to Daniel Pearl

These days Maoist Chairman Prachanda is heard everywhere speaking in favor of Prime Minister and Nepali Congress President Girija Prasad Koirala. Prachanda’s overt support to Koirala has even sent a chill into the UML’s spine. UML General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal went on to the extent of criticizing Prachanda in the parliament. Prachanda, in a recent press briefing, had said Koirala would lead the upcoming interim government. Immediately the next day, UML General Secretary Nepal said no any agreement in this regard was made and he also strongly criticized Prachanda on many issues. It can be fairly understood that UML has developed the feeling that Nepali Congress and Maoists have formed a pact to marginalize the UML. This suspicion has some truth because the mutual understanding between the NC and the Maoists will definitely have a perceptible effect on the UML. Many revolutionary UML cadres in the local levels have serious grudge over their party and they are finding the CPN-Maoist as a suitably party for them. So the UML has felt that some of its cadres have switched to the Maoists. The CPN-Maoist, on the other hand, has remained an untested political force. Prachanda sounds more confident and charismatic in comparision with the UML General Secretary Nepal. Both the UML and the CPN-Maoist share the same root of communism and the challenge for both is to pursuade the Nepalese people to their ideology. The growth of the CPN-Maoist is in a way a loss for the UML because both the parties have the same vote bank. I don’t think the people supporting the king vote for the Maoists and the UML. They may vote for the Nepali Congress. Even the people supporing the NC won’t vote for the Maoists and the UML.

Koirala seems to be in the uppper hand at the current political situation. NC has its vote bank intact because the NC cadres are not likely to vote for the Maoists and the UML. And the NC may get the vote from those who strongly criticise the communism. They may be the royalists or the anti-communist ones. Therefore, the NC is likely to receive more votes from any other parties because the Maoists and the UML will compete eachother. The stronger the UML becomes, the weaker goes the Maoists and vice versa.

I don’t think Koirala and Prachanda have any kinds of alliance or agreement to marginalize the UML. But it is for sure that Koirala wishes Maoists to grow so that it will challenge the UML. Therefore, UML has a huge challenge ahead. 

I also think UML General Secretary should not have spoken in public against Prachanda and Koirala. Silent diplomacy is the most powerful weapon, the UML should realize. If it goes ahead with a fierce campaign, the UML still has the potentiality to continue claiming the second position, once the NCs get united very soon.