Dark Cloud Over Constituent Assembly Poll
Once again we are likely to fall into a vicious cycle of violence and political instability. Although Nepal’s Interim Constitution mandates that the Constituent Assembly (CA) poll must be held on November 22, none of the political parties are sincerely working on it. This is the second time the CA poll has been postponed in Nepal. The Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist has, instead of coming up with its election manifesto, has made public its protest programs for the next two months. It has raised the dead issues, which were already settled in the past. The Maoists are now demanding that the monarchy be abolished through interim parliament and proportional election system be adopted before the CA poll. The two issues are not likely to be settled before the CA poll. The Maoists had actually agreed that the issue of monarchy will be settled by the first meeting of the Constituent Assembly following the poll. The Maoists had also agreed that the parties would adopt the mixed election system for the poll. With the agreement from all political parties, including the Maoists, both these provisions have already been mentioned in the interim constitution.
Now the Maoists are raising the issues with a clear intention of disrupting the poll. Internal information of the Maoists says that the Maoists confidential observation across the country has given a report that they would secure not more than 40 seats in the poll if it is held on November 22. The report says the Maoist has seriously lost its hold in the terai due to Madhesi forum and other groups. It has also lost its hold in some hilly districts of western terai. The report has concluded that it will be a suicidal attempt for the Maoists to go to November poll. Therefore, they have floated the demands which were already settled in the past. However, the Maoists’ pre-conditions for the CA poll has another meaning. The Maoists are saying that they will go to poll if their pre-conditions are fulfilled. It means the Maoists are planning that they will take these two preconditions as strong issue during the CA poll. They will campaign that the republic and proportional election system were agreed only due to the Maoists. The Maoists have an analysis that this campaign will strongly support their political campaign and can at least become the second largest party in Nepal after Nepali Congress. Otherwise, the Maoists know that the Nepali Congress (two NCs are sure to unite not by will but by compulsion) will become the largest party in the CA poll and if they have strong issue for the poll, they will slide down to the third or fourth political force in Nepal. There is a strong pressure from within the party not to go to poll this time.
But it must be seriously thought that the Maoists will be blamed if the CA poll couldn’t be held on November. The Maoists will definitely launch strong protest programs, which could turn into a revolt. As the Maoists’ protests will turn into a revolt, the deployment of army will be felt a necessary alternative by other political parties. There will be a political bickering- Nepali Congress, UML and other rightist forces will stand on one corner whereas the Maoists will lead the leftist forces. The army will be behind the Nepali Congress, UML and other rightist forces to fight the Maoists’ high-handedness.
The army deployment will not be a choice but it will be a compulsion for the political parties and the army will notice its importance because the Maoists’ protests are sure to turn violent. The army then will start political bargain with political parties. The parties will become helpless and they will have to concede to the demands of the army at that point. Therefore, the army will become a very powerful force in Nepal. It will begin a vicious cycle of violence because the army will begin its fight with the Maoists whereas political parties; especially Nepali Congress, other rightist forces, who will be willingly or unwillingly supported by the UML, will work as buffer zone. It will be a democratic government, ruled by the army from behind the curtain.
So where we are heading…it’s high time everybody have to think very seriously.
