With the candidacy of Maoist central leader and Deputy Commander of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Barsa Man Pun ‘Ananta’, constituency 1 of Lalitpur district has drawn larger attention.
If past records are analyzed, it’s not an easy bet for Ananta, who actually comes from Rolpa, to face Nepali Congress and the UML, which traditionally have strong control over the entire district.
A new figure with new party, Ananta is battling with other new figures of NC and UML—Udaya Rana and Madhusudan Poudel respectively—in this constituent, which has 65,294 voters in 28 VDCs.“Much has changed after the previous local and parliamentary elections, if they are taken as basis for evaluation. Many UML cadres have joined our party during the decade-long insurgency,” Ananta says.
He argues that the Maoists had used Lalitpur district; especially hilly areas, as their base during the decade-long armed insurgency. “I have been in close touch with the residents of Lalitpur district, majority of which belongs to my constituency (1) ever since I was appointed as party’s in-charge for the Kathmandu valley in the past,” he says, adding, “I know that majority people in this constituency support me.”
He has also largely banked on over 10,000 new voters in the constituency. “Majority of the new voters are young and they are attracted by our revolutionary character more than the UML and the NC,” he argues.Ananta may be correct in his own mathematics, but the UML’s claim looks closer to reality if the result of previous local body elections is taken something as measuring rod.
Out of 28 VDCs in this constituency, 21 had gone in the UML’s coffer in the previous local elections, while NC and RPP had shared the rest with 2 and three, respectively.
“In general, local body elections are largely influenced by the concerned political party which is in the government,” says Bimal Bista, a NC cadre who is a member of the NC election campaign for Lalitpur district.
Bista’s argument sounds logical as NC had secured majority in local elections in 1992 and the UML claimed its right in 1997—when they were in government.
He argues that the NC, in 1999 parliamentary polls, had technically beaten the UML in constituency 1.
UML’s Sushila Nepal had secured her victory with 13,893 votes while Keshar Bahadur Bista, an NC leader, had followed her with 9,975 as an independent candidate and NC candidate Sagar Rana had secured 9,000 votes from this constituency in 1999 polls.
Keshar Bahadur Bista, who was NC lawmaker in the National Assembly in during 1999 polls, has now fielded his candidacy from the RPP.
NC cadre Bista claims that Keshar Bahadur’s voters were actually the NC dissidents, who had voted for him as an independent NC candidate.
“Those NC supporters are not going to vote for Keshar Bahadur Bista this time as he is contesting from the RPP,” Bista says, adding, “There are no any NC dissidents this time after the NCs merged.”
However, UML sounds much confident with 21 VDCs–Bhattedanda, Dalchowk, Ghusel, Lele, Malta, Nallu, Tyutar, Bukhel, Chaudhare, Ikudole, Manikhel, Sankhu, Asrang, Gimdi, Gotikhel, Thulodulung, Kaleswor, Chhampi, Chapagau, Badikhel, Godawari—in its coffers in the last local elections.
Madhav Poudel, coordinator of UML’s Lalitpur district election campaign, argues that the UML still holds majority in all 21 VDCs.
“On top of it, we have always won this constituency 1 since 1991 parliamentary polls,” he says.
Like Maoist candidate Ananta, UML cadre Poudel claims majority of 10,000 new voters belong to his party.
He has his own assessment. He says NC voters will be divided between Rana and Bista.
Three major parties have their own calculations on the basis of geographical position of VDCs also in this constituency.
20 VDCs out of 28 in this constituency fall in hilly areas. Maoist candidate Ananta claims that his party has strong influence in the hill area. “We stayed in the hilly area and built up our strong relation with people during the decade-long insurgency,” he says, adding, “We will beat NC and UML with larger support from the people in hill area.”
UML cadres Poudel suspects that Maoists may use force in hilly area, which he claims largely belong to his party.
We have to wait for next at least three weeks to test all these mathematics but it looks that NC, UML and the Maoists are battling to clinch victory in this constituency.
